2005 literally took the world by storm. The tragedies of the Asian Tsunami, the
Hurricanes that blew through the US Gulf Coast and the earthquakes that
swallowed parts of Pakistan have left an indelible mark on 2005. While mother
nature cast a shadow on 2005, it was technology that delivered the impact that
resulted in a huge outpouring of donations. The world was touched by the human
element seen real-time in pictures and videos. Today's technology was able to
deliver the graphical grittiness that portrayed the nightmares occurring half a
world away.
Technology is usually thought of as impersonal, but something needs to be
recognized; without technology the personal elements of the 2005 tragedies would
not likely have been conveyed to the extent and timeliness they were. Reflecting
on 2005 and looking forward to 2006, technology will undoubtedly continue play a
significant role in the future both on a personal and impersonal level.
In 2005 Blogs gave birth to splogs, where senseless web scrapers generated
massive amounts of senseless content. Spam reached a whole new level, right
along side the ethical debate of content scraping. Copyrights have been stepped
on and I foresee a new host of tools that will emerge to protect content.
SPAM and phishing scams were easier to recognize, but to their credit, spammers
showed off their creativity, finding additional channels to inundate. From
splogs to forum spam, 2005 tech users saw spam as one of life's continued
annoyances. Looking into a crystal ball, I fear that social bookmarking will
become the spam vehicle of 2006, weakening the value of a collective voice.
Sadly the blog saturation has resulted in web clutter. Due to increased
competition and vast quantities of blogs on free hosted blog networks services,
bloggers competing for audiences and web traffic will result in significant
abandoned content, cluttering the web with useless ramblings. The ease of
blogging that resulted in saturation will be its downfall. Credibility will
again become important. Journalist, who have suffered from the blogosphere in
2005, will have a reprieve as credibility becomes an issue for bloggers. In 2006
web surfers are going to look for multiple sources to confirm facts, and rely on
reliable respected sources, community content, and collaboration like Wikipedia
is going to suffer and become less relevant in 2006. While Wikipedia scores well
in search, it does not perform as well with accuracy. The Wikipedia community is
haunted by spam and like DMOZ, it's success will be its downfall. The relevance
of successful community wiki's will fade in 2006.
Cell phones have become personal homing devices, and it is near impossible to
locate a cellular phone that is not capable of manipulating or taking photos,
videos, graphics and text messages in addition to the traditional voice calls.
It is likely the PDA will become extinct in 2006, as travelers move to a single
multifunction device. In 2007 MP3 players will likely be a common feature of
cell phones.
Wireless growth is still worth noting, as it has moved from hotspots, to hot
zones, to hot cities. Philadelphia and San Francisco are leading the way as
wireless cities in 2006.
What is in store for 2006? Privacy is a hot topic that is not going to
disappear. Google and the US Government are battling a Big Brother image. Data
mining has made the collection of data meaningful. Anti-Google sentiment is
growing. Google has fallen from grace, while Google has made friends on Wall
Street, it has disappointed surfers who have turned to Yahoo and MSN in growing
numbers. 2006 will likely result heat up the search engine war with MSN and
Yahoo scrambling for marketshare and Google walking a tightrope with privacy
advocates on one end and monopoly theorists on the other end.
Google wants to make money, and like it or not data, is a commodity. Google will
likely use the data from their various ventures to develop new technologies and
personalize content. Conspiracy theorists believe that the Google's aggregate
data will also be used to optimize the fees charged for pay-per-click, influence
organic ranking, or worse yet, sold.
Google's growth will continue to motivate privacy advocates and those in the
technology field behind the Attention Truste movement, to work together, to
improve how personal information and subscription information is used online. I
expect we will see a lot of energy and effort in this area.
Personalized content will be a buzz word for 2006. Whether it is users selecting
Podcasts, iTunes, or purchasing Amazon recommendations the web is learning how
to cater content based on user selections and choices. Web surfers see
personalized content as regaining control of what they want to watch, see, or
listen to. From Tivo to podcasting, users are taking back control. Yet when the
web serves content that is based on past surfing habits, who is really in
control?
In 2005, marketers were told in no uncertain terms, if they are not using
syndication and RSS, they will not survive. Well, they have one more chance to
get it right. In 2006, marketers must use RSS as an alternative communication
channel. It will no longer be cutting edge, it will be a must to survive. Web
surfers no longer expect to provide personal information (an email address) for
marketing materials, they expect to have a choice about how they wish to receive
the content.
Vendors selling through affiliate programs lost ground in 2005. Publishers found
the easy money of pay-per-click advertising not fraught with the inherent
problems of affiliate tracking and cookie-killers. The increase in click-fraud
and content scraping on AdSense sites will even the playing field and make
affiliate programs more attractive in 2006.
The world is getting smaller, and technological advancements has not only
brought us tragedy, but also has opened doors and the global market is now a
viable option for small businesses. I believe the globalization trend will
continue in 2006.
Top 10 Winners Predicted for 2006:
- Cyber Security
- VOIP
- Attention Data
- RSS/Syndication
- Copyprotection
- Credibility
- Privacy
- Alternative Energy (reusable fuel, clean energy)
- Content Filtering
- VideoTunes (iTunes with Video)