Search Engine Predictions for 2004
by Mike Banks Valentine
After being asked to contribute some predictions for 2004 to
a search engine newsletter, I found it so much fun to make
my search cynicism tangible that I took it seriously.
What follows is at once silly and deadly serious as it simply
follows the trends we've all seen over the past year. It is
apparent that if things don't change these things WILL happen.
This is really just an excuse to talk about Google in a long-
winded way. ;-)
1. Yahoo integrates it's purchases of Overture, Inktomi,
AltaVista from it's buying spree in 2003 in an attempt to
become a true competitor to the ailing (Florida ravaged)
Google. First attempts look something like AskJeeves with
15 paid results dominating the screen, both top and bottom
and right side of the SERP's. Then they realize that people
want more organic (free, non-sponsored) search results and
drop back to the simple Google-like screen for search with
Inktomi results. But then the Overture results go to a new
250x800 skyscraper box incorporating flash based blinking,
spinning borders on the left side of the screen. Every
remaining search engine not already owned by Yahoo will be
purchased by Yahoo, including Google (see prediction #3).
2. MSN officially launches MSN search based on their own
technology (mid to late 2004). After some AskJeeves-like
attempts to show paid results for the majority of the SERP
screen real estate, they realize nobody trusts this model
and decide to go to a Google-like spare screen with only
Overture results on the right and two paid results clearly
labled at the top of the page. Since dropping Looksmart
paid results in January, they announce they've been
developing their own PPC engine and will spend 6 billion
dollars in developing it over the next ten years,
incorporating search into the Longhorn operating system -
delayed again year-end to make security upgrades.
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3. Google's IPO fizzles after the new non-relevant search
results cause searchers to stop using them entirely. When
they announce they've gone back to the pre-Florida algorithm,
they gain back their die-hard fans. But it seems like too
little, too late for most of the remaining public. Then
suddenly, open source search engine "Nutch" launches a
massive campaign to become the Google replacement. Nutch.com
is an overnight success and becomes the new worldwide favorite.
Yahoo makes a buyout offer for Nutch and MSN announces they'll
develop their own . . . oops, not open source - it'll
incorporate .Net, be called .Netch and will be tied to
Longhorn. Yahoo buys Google data centers and hardware at
firesale prices after hiring the star staff right before a
Google Bankruptcy is announced.
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The last prediction is heretical to search afficianados but
I contend that Google has reached the end of their useful
life when they go public with that IPO. The much beloved
"Don't be evil" of Sergey Brin and Larry Page will go right
out the door when they begin answering to the stock market
rather than their consciences. Take a look at the famous
"Don't be evil" reference from the founders of Google at:
Comments have been tossed about that the Google "Florida"
update in November was a conspiracy to gain Adwords
customers. I don't believe that one for a minute, but two
theories I've seen do seem credible. One says that Google is
incorporating the technology from the recent acquisition of
Applied Semantics into search results. More at:
Another theory says that Google's PageRank patent is owned
by Standford University and NOT Google, so they had to pull
it out of the algorithm before going public. That would
surely explain some poor search results if it were true!
